JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 12 2017 08:34 AM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Quote:

Irma's Cone of Uncertainty - Why it is so important to use the Cone and not the line.




Overall the NHC did a very good job...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/forecasts-have-done-a-good-job-predicting-irmas-shifting-path/

There were only 2 small errors but these lead to major differences in who was effected -

1) Irma's constant W to WNW motion and at one point a SW motion on the Cuban coast (9/9 @ 8AM). This altered landfall from the up the spine of FL to a west coast landfall.

2) Irma's NE motion after landfall in Naples (9/10 @ 6PM) followed by a due N run for 6 hours (thru 12AM). This spared Tampa but moved damage more into Central FL (like Orlando) as the eye moved over Arcadia vs Sarasota.

Another surprise was the 1/2 eye situation that occurred in Naples. There was nothing behind (south) of the storm, I was watching Jeff's live periscope feed and the eye came over, everyone came out, then... nothing. Its didn't even rain, the winds didn't seem to come back up at all. I think this helped to limit damage in Naples somewhat. See: http://flhurricane.com/images/mirrors/2017/LRRadar/LRRadar_091020171808.png

Still working on getting my time lapse video up, taking panels down today after general clean up yesterday.



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