Sat Sep 16 2017 12:45 PM
Re: TS Lee Lounge

FOURTEEN has become Tropical Storm Lee as of 1200z Sep 16. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be at least 35 knots based improved convection and a partial ASCAT pass from around 1100 that indicated some winds to tropical storm force were occurring.

The official NHC forecast calls for Lee to remain a weak tropical storm steered by the low level flow (generally to the west), and to become a remnant low by late next week while still well east of the Lesser Antilles. Should such an intensity and directional track confirm, Lee - or his remnants - could still be a weather maker for the islands next weekend or the following week (last week in September) if the area of low pressure hasn't been completely obliterated by shear and/or dry air.

Alternatively, Lee or his remnants track more poleward, which is a solution favored by the 12z CMC, GFS, UKMET, others - especially plausible if Lee remains stronger than NHC forecasts.

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