Fri Sep 22 2017 10:10 AM
Re: TS Lee Lounge

Lee become a remnant low a while ago, defeated by strong shear, and the last NHC Advisory on Lee was written 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017. The remnants stretched out into a surface trof, but a mid-level vort remained.

Over the past few days NHC increased odds of regeneration up to 70% at one point, but then dropped it entirely last night, effectively down to near zero from just 10% earlier in the day.

However, a new closed surface circulation became apparent farther north along the Trof of Remnant Lee, and convection began increasing in association with the area of low pressure overnight. As of first light this morning, this low now appears to be a small Tropical Cyclone, but yet there are no new advisories, let alone any mention in the 8AM TWO.

It is possible that NHC wants to see if it doesn't quickly flame out, in which case, there would be a strong argument to add this to the post-season report. It is not clear if this low would be considered Lee, however, as it is clearly not the same surface vort. On the other hand, it is arguably more "Lee," than not.

Regardless of whether this cyclone gets mentioned in real-time, or noted post-season, it is well out at sea, presently on the weak side, and mostly spinning fish. It could though have an impact on steering currents of Maria down the road.

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