Fri Oct 06 2017 11:37 AM
Re: Nate Lounge


Does anyone else see a competing surface low becoming dominant to the east of the current surface low? Recon data seems to be hinting at that possibility.

This mission has been flying up around 5000' and suggests that the mid-level center is possibly misaligned from the surface low pressure minimum, perhaps some overall vortex tilting with height (leftovers from yesterdays southwesterly shear? maybe with the overall influence from the parent gyre?) Either way, Nate is lopsided, with the stronger winds by far in the northeastern quadrant, well away from the surface pressure minimum, and mostly much weaker winds in the western semicircle ... potential implications for Florida, even if landfall point is much further west.

With deep convection globules located well southwest, over, and well northeast of the surface center, within the large region of parent vorticity, model runs that suggested satellite vorts of one kind or another seem realistic enough. Interesting to watch play out - tricky forecast, tho

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