Sat Oct 14 2017 06:56 PM
Invest 92L Lounge

A broad area of low pressure that has been tracked by NHC for a few days is continuing to show indications of development potential, and now at a pace that may be picking up. This feature has been tagged 92L, and given its very close proximity to the northern Leeward Islands, we will start a Lounge thread, despite it being forecast by most reliable models to soon recurve out to sea (however, not without an outlier chance of not heading out to sea, and a fair chance of impacting more of the Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles and possibly Bermuda, regardless).

Conditions for development are on the increase, and as of early this afternoon NHC had assigned 40% odds of this Low becoming a topical cyclone within 5 days, and this could be conservative. Deep convection has been firing closer to the center today, and if this trend continues, development may occur sooner, possibly even by tomorrow night or Monday.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles should pay attention. Regardless of development, 92L already has the potential to produce life-threatening heavy rains and flooding over recently storm-ravaged and flood-prone locations.

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