cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Jun 02 2019 03:56 PM
Re: Invest 91L Lounge

Some 6/2 12z Model overviews

ECMWF - Nowhere near as aggressive as 12z yesterday, now only working 91L into a *maybe* TD just south of Brownsville, TX on or about Tuesday/Wednesday. Still a prolific rain-maker, widespread moderate to heavy showers and perhaps some thunderstorms implicated over much of south Texas into Louisiana as 91L, or by then perhaps TD2, is drawn into the upper-level trof approaching from its northwest.

GFS - Similar to the EURO above, but with even less of a TD signal.. most likely drawing 91L up as an inverted trof into the upper-level trof from its northwest, along with very high PWATS into deep south Tx, east Tx, Louisiana, and later in the week much of the south.

CMC - Has a much stronger TD signal than today's 12z ECMWF and GFS. Draws 91L or TD 2 into deep south Texas and rides the center of lowest surface pressure right up and along the Texas coast from near Brownsville, Tx Wednesday and pushing inland into Louisiana by Thursday night. Like the other two models mentioned, a stout feed of high PWATS is drawn into deep south Tx, east Tx, Louisiana and eventually many other southern states.

Generally, today's 12z runs of the major global models offer up a roughly 50/50 or so chance that 91L becomes a TD before moving inland over or near south Texas and maybe Louisiana, with the greatest threat likely to be ongoing showers and tropical downpours, with an attendant flood risk.

All of these runs rely on the 'center' of 91L remaining much closer to extreme southwest Bay of Campeche, and may be less helpful if the trend of 91L reestablishing itself further offshore continues.



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