I just don't buy the models on this one. As someone else said, timing is everything, but I don't see the trough picking it up that soon - especially with the turn to the WSW - it appears that Katrina will emerge in the GOM south of the latitude where it made landfall north of Miami - granted several models forecast this. I'm going to go with a landfall somewhere west of Apalachicola - perhaps well west of there - as a Cat 3 or Cat 4 (the GOM is HOT). As far as predicting the intensity when Katrina emerges into the GOM - I'm think it's not going to weaken alot, based upon looking at the satellite and radar presentation, which appear to be getting better as it traverses the peninsula. Best guess: Katrina enters the GOM tomorrow mid-afternoon as a 60 MPH tropical storm, but regains hurricane intensity by the 5pm ET advisory.