So, the UL trough is hanging tough against Ernesto, although not enough to diminish its intensity. This is a dramatic change, and the change in the forecast models over the last 24 hours is remarkable. The history of Ernesto and previous forecast tracks are quite amazing! Do you realize the forecast errors for Ernesto beyond 72 hours? Ernesto is one of the reasons these avg forecast errors are so large -- and it's not done yet. At this point, I expect the CENTER of Ernesto to never make landfall in the U.S., although the entire SE US coast will get some rough surf. The subtropical ridge is retreating quickly. After getting torn up crossing Cuba, I believe Ernesto will strengthen to a cat III off the E coast of FL before zooming off to the NE.