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It looks like the center has jumped north of the tip of Haiti. This maybe just a wobble, but if it's not, the track will probably be shifted more to the east. Some of the model runs are showing a more easterly track to include the Bahamas.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WATCHES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.
Since it is not the lower Bahamas that would be in the direct path should it turn to the north now.. it appears that the NHC is thinking that the storm will move more across the peninsula and hit the Bahamas from the west.
Given it's latest movement, I believe the alternate scenario I mentioned this morning is becoming more and more possible (and finally picked up by at least one model) ... that the center of Ernesto never crosses, or even touches the FL peninsula, but moves NNW just off the E coast (along the eastern edge of the current cone). This would cause a lot more grief for the central and NW Bahamas.
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening