Can anyone explain to me what has to happen in the atmosphere for Ernesto to take a track toward the AL/FL border. I just don't trust these models and predictions since Katrina was supposed to hit Appalachacola and hit N.O. and Ivan was supposed to drift to N.O. and ended up creaming us in Pensacola area. Is there any chance that in the next 2 days the atmospheric conditions could change and bring Ernesto up through the hot waters of the mid gulf and into Pensacola? I am not asking for a % prediction, but am trying to understand why the models and NHC are so sure this thing is going to dogleg hard to the right in a couple of days.

This site is the best, that's why i am a long time supporter and donator. You guys have helped me out immensely in Ivan and Dennis and that's why i'm going to be sending Mike C. a check this week to help him pay for his enormous bandwidth costs that this site must use, more and more each year.