typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 05 2006 04:32 PM
Re: Hurricane Florence???

Strongly suspect/suggest that the largeness of the circulation envelope is partial for why it survives to upgrade status when the convective morphology is so disrupted looking..

Which...no one sensible would argue! It does look a little ragged, doesn't it?

But, there is a tremendous amount of mass caught up in cyclonic curl with this system already and enough convection to persist to help excite. It is safe to note that larger systems are notoriously more capable of fending off hostilities in their environments... Considering the shear is unanimously, by all models and reasonable analysis therein, predicted to lesson, the immediate history of Flo's ability to survive can and should be taken into consideration...

But, agreed - it would be nice to see the convection really wrap bodily around the rotation before getting too excited.



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