ed.. dont ya think maybe youve gone off the deep end with the low number forecasting? when was the last year with no majors? youre calling for four more systems, two of them hurricanes.. something we could get in a week were shear to let up during and mjo wet cycle. the pacific has responded, only makes sense to assume the atlantic will respond and soon. i wont be buying any slow season forecasts until maybe mid or late september.. if things come together right for two or three weeks you can get half a dozen or more storms no problem.. and recent years have shown a tendency to go in bursts. if the basin is about to go hot after a slow, erratic early season.. then we've been here before.
well, one big difference.. nobody was quoting and requoting slow analog years, comparing their persistent features to those this year. to complicate, ive heard quite a spread of analog years since last fall... maybe the basin conditions are in constant transition. my 12-8-4 confidence has pretty much waned, but not ready to believe that this year will be unusually slow.
HF 1308z27august