hey, maybe i'm too high on my numbers. 12-8-4 seems out there (just as it might have say.. oh, on august 29, 2001). but i'm almost certain youre too low. have the feeling youre going down within two weeks. of course, if this was The Price is Right, your bid might still win you a chance to play plinko. just look back at the CFHC archives and see what everybody was guessing for this year, from nov and dec. i could be called conservative among the bunch.
anyhow, one thing i'm almost certain of: we will get more than 2 hurricane strength systems. going under 1994 is pretty fearless... akin to staying in a poker game with one pair of fours.
oh yeah, the stuff about our 'new age of hurricane activity' since '95 or so. supposedly the atlantic thermohaline cycle, and/or the EPO, or whatever drives long term ENSO tendencies, have collaborated to put us in overdrive for a while. so yes, 1997s might peek in every now and then and give us an off year.. but if what the climo guys are hypothesizing is correct, the switch is flipped to ON and stuck for a while. 30 years i think the stuff i read said.
anyhow, how about this mjo business. middle of the season, sad mjo.. nothing happens. middle of the season, happy mjo.. lots of things seem to be happening.
well.. i guess its possible youll still hit your numbers. but just in case, remember, the crow goes well with a vintage vermouth. and a side of stuffed olives. take it from a carolina boy who knows his way around culinary roadkill. heh.
HF 2000z29august

Four more to go
Before any Crow*
But if only a third
Then WHO gets the bird ?

ED

(* forecast margin of error +/- 1)