danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Feb 16 2005 11:00 PM
Re: South Pacific

Update on OLAF.
WARNING POSITION:
17/0000Z8 --- NEAR 15.4S0 168.2W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT (161 MPH), GUSTS 170 KT (195.5 mph)

...REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 167.8W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127, 140 AND 155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TC 19P REMAINS RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.//

JTWC link.
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html



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