it's happening a little slower than gfs predicted, but 91E looks to be contracting into a single coherent low pressure area near 11n 101w. for some reason ssd doesn't have a rating on this area (a couple of too weak ratings from tuesday are all it's managed so far), but that should change shortly. i think we'll get another forecast cycle of just an outlook, but by the 8pm or maybe the 2am pdt intervals it might be marked up to a depression. exactly how this thing evolves can play heavily into what happens in the caribbean/gulf over the next few days--could easily draw a wash of westerly winds in and create a lot of convergence, and scramble the upper air flow up and leave a pocket or two of development-friendly areas in our basin.
as of right now, think this will be aletta late tomorrow or saturday, and that early next week it will be up thumping along the mexican riviera.
HF 2030z25may