CoconutCandy
(User)
Tue Jul 17 2007 11:07 AM
Attachment
Cosme Weakens to TS, Hawaii Bound

Cosme lasted as a hurricane for 2 advisories, and has now been downgraded to a TS as of 11pm HST.

"MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF COSME IS LAGGING BEHIND ITS DEEP CONVECTION ... THE QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT COSME HAD WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM."

(I've attached a rather nice QuikScat image while Cosme was still a hurricane. It is a *complete* pass over the cyclone, and shows very well how the strongest winds are associated with the deepest convection. Certainly worth a look.)

Although the hurricane force winds covered only a small area, the overall circulation of Cosme remains quite large, nearly 200 miles. So it may take a while for the cyclone to spin down.

Some easterly shear and progressively cooler SST's will take their toll over the next few days, however it's still on a projected track that may bring it as a minimal tropical storm very near or over the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. And as Cosme nears Hawaiian waters the SST's will gradually become somewhat warmer again.

"EASTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS SHOULD CAUSE COSME TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ... AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD SST'S ALONG THE TRACK WILL INCREASE AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...IT'S AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT COSME COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD."

This might be interesting, due to the large size of the circulation and it's forecasted maintaining TS strength. The Islands may be in store for a rather wet, blustery weekend. We shall see if this pans out.

More tomorrow ...

- Aloha from Honolulu



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