I was kinda surprised to see the flareup of convection again this afternoon, given the relative low-level stability over the cooler SSTs. It'll be critical to the storm's survival to see that convection persist, even in a sheared state.

From anecdotal experience, it seems like most storms that track in this direction toward Hawaii do not make it as coherent tropical cyclones. There was one a year or three back -- the J storm, I want to say -- that tried by was reduced to a low-level cloud swirl before it reached the state. The waters seem to be *just* cool enough -- and occasionally coupled with one other negative factor -- to weaken these storms to the point of prohibiting regeneration further west. But, given that the chance is there, it's still prudent to mention it, as the NHC has done and is doing.

Will be interesting to see what ultimately happens...