Delightful post.

It's abundantly clear tonight that Invest 94E (as tracked by NRL, but not as currently tracked by SSD) is right on the cusp. That there hasn't been a TCFA hoisted up on it already probably has more to do with timing, than with qualification.

This recent AMSUB Color Composite betrays a rather healthy incipient cyclone. Might take a while to see if it gets a name, or not, tho. It's still a bit caught in the clutches of the ITCZ, just yet.

The description of the MJO as "incoherent" interests me. Seems as good a description as any. The past several days I have been thinking of it as "fractured." Not sure just what this means, other than I think it could be deduced that convective activity might tend to break out just about anywhere, or anywhere that one of these "fractures" happens to be at any given moment... but also that such a convective push might be fleeting, and so perhaps not tenacious enough to allow for some of the would-be cyclones to percolate to fruition.

I wonder how long this phase lasts.