Hmmm ... You're right. Looks to be not very well organized today. Animated visible imagery suggests that there might be several minor circulation centers, in addition to the main one. Microwave imagery doesn't look too pretty, either.

I think the 'window of opportunity' could be closing soon. Even if the convection consolidates tonight (not out of the question) and a TD/storm does form, it's quite likely to be short-lived.

The SST overlay reveals a very complex pattern. One of the strangest I've ever seen. There is a *strong* thermal gradient (tightly packed isotherms) of high amplitude to the NE of the LLC *and* much cooler waters just to the west.

So it now seems to me that development to TD is rather questionable, and even if it does occur, will be short-lived as the SST's in the area just don't really support much development of this system, if at all.

But I concur with Michael that it could be a rather 'unusual season' shaping up for all the basins east of the dateline. More on that later, which I will post to another forum.