| CoconutCandy |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 01 2009 05:41 PM |
|
MAJOR Typhoon 'Parma' Bearing down on Philippines
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Just what the Philippines *don't* need right now. Yet another typhoon threatening the already battered island !!
After Tropical Storm Ketsana (a weak 35 Kt. storm!) caused massive flooding a week or so ago in Manila (the worse flooding there in 46 years, Yikes!) and throughout Luzon, the Northern-most Island of the Philippines, we now have the spectre of Major Typhoon 'Parma' approaching Luzon from the SE.
You will notice the forecast track taking the center of 'Parma' directly over the NE tip of Luzon, but as the effects of tropical cyclones are far reaching, the entire island is sure to suffer torrential rains and massive mud and landslides from already saturated terrain. If this fact wasn't enough in itself, it appears that 'Parma' will slow in it's forward motion and turn due west as it passes north of Luzon, likely prolonging the torrential rains over the island and severely exacerbating the flooding already occuring.
Link to Full Map, including Forecast Wind Speeds and CPA Info
NRL Tropical Cyclone Homepage for Typhoons Parma, Melor and more
After attaining SuperTyphoon status for a while yesterday (it went from a 40 Kt. tropical storm in my previous post to a supertyphoon in less than 24 hours(!), a testiment to the very high oceanic heat content), the inner core convection apparently had an altercation with several detrimental environmental factors. From the JTWC's latest prognostic reasoning ...
Quote:
TYPHOON PARMA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TO A TYPHOON. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES IN THE MID LEVELS HAS CAUSED EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO ENCOUNTERED MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 T0 30 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THESE 2 FACTORS CAUSED A LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. (HOWEVER) RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
As mentioned, the Philippines are still very much reeling from TS Ketsana last week, resulting in at least 277 fatalities at last count, leaving *tens of thousands* homeless(!) and destroying more than $100 million dollars in crops, infrastructure and property.
And now they're having to brace themselves for yet another, even stronger, typhoon; the 2nd in as many weeks!
Philippines braces for second stronger typhoon
Philippines raises alert for new super typhoon
Storm-ravaged Philippines braced for 'super typhoon' Parma
Quote:
PARMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON, MAKING LANDFALL (over the NE tip of Luzon) THEN CROSSING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT. THE SYSTEM WILL RECOVER INTENSITY, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH.
AFTER 72 HOURS, TYPHOON PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH NORTHERN LUZON'S TOPOGRAPHY. ONCE IT CROSSES INTO LUZON STRAIT, IT WILL REMAIN AT STRONG TYPHOON INTENSITY. DURING THIS PERIOD, TYPHOON PARMA WILL SLOW DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION AS A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) COMMENCES.
AFTER 72 THE TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN SLOW ... THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR TYPHOON PARMA REMAINS COMPLICATED BY POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON MELOR TO THE EAST AND INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
It seems nearly certain that 'Parma' will adversely affect an Island already caught up in a huge calamity from the last storm, and will assuredly besiege the already storm-weary Philippine people still struggling with flooding, homelessness and massive crop losses. My heart goes out to the very friendly and beautiful Filippinos. They've had more than enough cyclones already this year!