Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Sep 11 2003 08:12 PM
Re: isabel challenge 2

This is tough....many, many possibilities.

I don't think Isabel will have made landfall at that point in time. I do think it'll be near the Gulf Stream, and I don't buy a substantial weakening trend between now and then.

My best guess? A WNW trend for the first few days, with a slow forward speed, followed by some jogs both NW and W. As for a position and intensity estimate?

28°N, 76°W, 120kt.

My best guess for beyond that places the greatest threat between Wilmington and Daytona Beach...my eventual track thinking is not far off from HF, in calling for a possible uncharacteristic landfall region.

But with this kind of forecast, I'm probably way off!


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