Well I don't quite know what to make of Dr Gray's latest update. He maintained the total number of named storms at 14, but reduced the number of named storm days from 70 (in his May update) to 60 in this latest update. He also noted that he expected storms to generally be of shorter duration but forecasted a higher than normal probability of risk for the Caribbean islands. When you consider that the Caribbean islands are normally at risk because of CV systems, and that CV systems are long duration systems (although not necessarily at TS strength or greater for their entire journey across the pond), I'm a bit perplexed at his new 'storm day' numbers.

His statistical analysis indicated 55 storm days and a total of 11 named storms - which is still an above-normal season. Normally, 60 storm days would equate to 12 (or perhaps 13) named storms, but not 14. The GFS now hints at what could become yet another significant factor, i.e., wind shear - or rather a significant decline in wind shear over almost all of the tropical Atlantic basin - and all of that in the next two days!

Atlantic 48-hour Wind Shear Forecast

If this forecast becomes reality, and the reality of lower wind shear becomes a trend for the remainder of the season, the likelyhood would be for an increase in the number of named storm days rather than a decrease. You could still end up with fewer storms, but with an aggregate increase in the number of named storm days due to longer storm duration at TS strength or greater.

As a side note, TSR updated their forecast for the season a few days ago:

Tropical Storm Risk

Cheers,
ED