I'm not sure what TSR is doing. They're making the same mistake that everyone else is. From what I could tell, they're using wind currents as primary prediction tools. But this year, things are being driven by Atlantic Ocean water temperatures in absence of other overriding factors and the NAO. They're missing the boat, but since they're using objective reasoning, their numbers are FAR LOWER for landfalls than what we will see before this season is through. We've had 2 of 4 named storms already make landfall - a Cat 1+ or 2- and a fairly strong tropical storm. Unless I'm mistaken, almost every system (except 1 or 2) that formed in the Western Pacific has made landfall in the islands and/or mainland of Asia. And while there's no clear-cut direct relationship between the Western Pacific and Western Atlantic, if one looks at the landfall pattern over there, it's not much of a jump to conclude that the SE should be under the gun. The coast of Japan is usually considered a teleconnection to North Carolina. If you consider the Philipines somewhat analagous (sp?) to S FL and the Greater Antilies, then put 2 and 2 together. You guys are going to get smacked before the season is out. So will the NE Gulf Coast. And I'm pretty sure Louisiana has a few body shots to take before mid-October. We got dumped on for Bill and a band from Claudia, but my money says the season is far from over for LA and MS.

Cyclone-I,

I didn't read Dr. Gray's August updates, only his numbers (as reported on the web). Although he reduced named storm days (presumably because of an anticipated shorter duration/liefspan for storms), I'll bet the season finishes within his range (60-70). A cautionary note is that if there are fewer named storm days within our current pattern, that even indicates number of storms that form pretty far west leading to a US Landfalling rate that could rival last year's.

We shall see.

Steve