If it were to take that path and a big if, the axis of the trof would contain highly unfavorable shear. Though with the recent similar situation from last year (two back to back gulf storms), and your idea of a small low compact storm why not go with Earl? There are some parallell's, albeit a few. A building subtropical ridge, two previous gulf storms, and the MJO last year was about to empty into the Atlantic (dug it up http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=20551&page=&vc=1); archives can be so useful. So if anyone wants to disagree I'm gonna say 98L's going to become a reincarnated Earl from last year.