the hurricanes will come. the objective now is to nail the upcoming weather patterns and figure out who gets hit. worst case scenario is that the mean trough position camps in the east-central u.s. like it did last summer. the anomalies aren't clustered in the eastern atlantic like they were in 1995... should bring 'em closer in and not have 'em all recurving between 45-65w. of course in any given season there tends to be a mean trough position and lots of recurvatures will train on that path. best case scenario is that the config that chucked franklin and now harvey out will be recurrent.. but that early pattern that sent dennis and emily on their tracks occuring later in the season with a more poleward ridge axis.. that's bad juju for the east coast. that big cross-basin ridge we had in early/mid july coming back in august or september would be bad indeed...
HF 0535z04august