Having survived a trip through the larger part of the Saharan dust layer while undergoing moderate shear in a subsidence environment on its east side, invest 97L is slowly emerging into a region more favorable for development. The area of low pressure associated with the system appears to have become a bit better organized and is no longer elongated northeast-southwest as it was at times yesterday. The deep convection associated with the system to the east remains displaced to the east, but convective cells have intermittently started to fire to the west of the center and a wide swath of convection has developed on the southern end of the storm.

It is worth noting that the organized cluster of convection near 12N/47.5W might be the feature some of the models were picking up on a few days ago for development. Nevertheless, until it sticks around for awhile, it's only of minor concern.

Nevertheless, as the system moves west to west-southwest as it tries to organize, development into a tropical depression within 24hr has become more likely. Unless it turns into a weakness in the ridge within the next 24hr, a general westward to west-northwestward path to the north of the Lesser Antilles is likely in order over the next few days. The current weakness in the ridge lies just behind T.S. Katrina at this point; thinking is if it develop, it will still recurve out to sea, but this is more likely to be closer to Bermuda than well east of there at this point. Given the storms that have followed a similar path this season and the pattern we've seen through much of late July and August, it'll have to be watched closely.

Credit where credit is due: Rabbit, as the storm was coming off of the coast, said that he believed that this would not develop until further down the line. That, in hindsight, was a very good call.