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I'm looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
and while it may move somewhat West initially, I think it will move NW near the coast (east coast) or slightly inlland then be deflected to the NE. It is so weak that even low level currents should catch it. We'll see. Regardless, I see some rain and breeze in our future. I just don't really think it has the 'space' to spin up into anything serious before hitting land. In fact, the western edge is already grazing FLaud or so it appears.
If the shear doesn't let up, it won't develop into anything - which looks likely in the immediate future I think. If the shear DOES let up, there's less chance of a NE deflection, I think. It's kind of interesting that the models went from taking it west across the Gulf to taking it NE along the Atlantic coast.
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Re: Area of Interest - Northern Bahamas