Sat Nov 19 2005 11:01 PM
Re: hurricane politics

the hurricane research by emanuel and that uga group may be in gray's specialty, but it isn't just he who is taking their findings with a grain of salt. more risky and serious are his comments directed at the entire global warming research community. to my knowledge nobody in the scientific community has stepped up and done this yet.
personally i think the world is getting warmer, and that the CO2 we're putting into the air is making some of it happen.. but to make a gross analogy our contribution may be no more than a surfer pissing on big wave. the effects land use change have contributed over the long run are likely underdone in the modeling, and more important are the poorly-understood heat and salinity mechanisms in the oceans, as well as the responses of carbon sink biota to higher CO2. geologic carbon sinks aren't even that well understood.
i liked the comment to the effect of 'the conclusions are made before the analyses are done', because with a lot of the research i've seen it sure appears that way. to be honest, though, i don't think that gray will be able to have much of an effect on the research community or the pols holding the pursestrings... there's too much already built around the hypothesis that human induced global warming is a real threat and too many true-believers in high places to run counter to such ideas. i hope he at least gets some scrutiny drawn to the issue.

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