It's nearly the first of December and I would have expected to see the wintertime continental pattern established. Instead, the jet is oscillating north/south and east/west, with disastrous results for those in the midwest US. We still have a lot of winter to get through - and hence, a lot of cooling - but the early pattern suggests storminess, which may keep SSTs in the GOM up a click.

Also saw the macrospheric levels of CO2 are at a geological-era high and climbing. Atmospheres don't respond quickly to change, and this may fortell not only an increase in the global heating capacity, but a sluggishness in the cool-offs ahead.

Thinking maybe 2006 will be above average but not at 2005 levels.

21/10/6