Wed Sep 05 2007 01:47 AM
Re: 99L


NRL as well as dvorak # of 1.5 has it at 25 knts (29 mph) Speculation from HF from the main thread that it may be a td already as well as what I have read from other sites. Does anyone think given the overall structure and shear with all the dry air to the nw of the assumed center, that this could td before morning or perhaps a recon invest? I also understand that a recon is scheduled for tomorrow. Anyone have any updates?

I don't think we can be certain this is a depression already. There are baroclinic signatures present and so long as that is the case, there inserts a question as to the storm's physical make-up. The term "subtropical low" is probably more accurate, or subtropical depression if that is what is being referred?

I have posted topical related to phase-transition and am admittedly a little biased so far in my own interpretation of this happening faster. There was a narrow window earlier this evening and late afternoon, when the UL winds demonstrated a sudden organization into a jet core pointing NE. This actually stopped the "NW" shear, and aligned just NW of a large canopy of strong divergence, separate, and over the center of active convection. This led me to believe we had two distinct scenarios in play that were simply a matter of being very close in proximity to oneanother. Fact of the matter is, there may have been two identifications temporarilty. But, the synoptic-scale forcing of said jet, and, perhaps a depression forming just barely SE of that jet axis have since appeared to team up, belaying the purer phase-transition.

So, yes and no. I think this is a probably a weak subtropical low feeding off some very high oceanic heat content in the area, while getting an ascent assist by the evactuative capacity of the jet max. This appears to be utilizing the dynamic processes of both worlds -- hense hybrid, subtropical, or whatever one wants to call it.

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