Thu Sep 06 2007 11:49 AM
Re: 99L gains model support and growing concern for East Coast

Well, I have to admit...my opinion on this has changed...

I do not speak for anyone else, of course, but I believe there is reason here, quite valid actually, to believe nothing is going to evolve of this. This phrase people like to use, "Storm Cancel" seems more plausible than not.

1) The upper level synoptic evolution has changed. 2 days ago...the modeled solutions did not carry this TUTT, now, they do. That has to immediately hoist a red flag.

2) Upper level lows are, excuse the cliche, notoriously poorly handled. Why? Because for some reason the physics in the models seem to have a problem handling their internal workings, but also how those workings relate to the outside environment.

3) Enters a fledgling little sickly TD infant caught up in the throws of its circulatoin field? Not likely...

4) Moreover, now that the GFS has stipulated to the presence of this TUTT, look what it is doing with it AND the circulation of this TD seed? It is retrograding them west toward the SE Coast, in tandem, such that this seed never really gets into a favorable environment as previously thought:
06z H500 evolution: http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_06z_500_all.htm
06z MSLP evolution: http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_06z_slp_all.htm

...We cannot expect this would-be TD to end up in a favorable environment when it is entangled with any such retrograding TUTT, and that is factually what the GFS is suggesting here. The ECM is not really different than this, either and there we have it. A model consensus for confusion more than anything else, because unless the TUTT its self somehow goes through a phase transition with extreme rapidity -- not likely to happen -- this system more likely becomes a victom of emergent perturbation -- or in other words, perhaps the TUTT emerged spontaneously from those old chaos lessons we learned in our Junior year.

There has been a surplus of diurnal convection in the deep south and MV the last 2 days and I noticed immediately down sream there was a sharpened mid and upper level ridge curvature along with stronger winds.. These dove SE off the SE U.S. Coast and I think literally imparted a physical exertion of forcing a trough response due to "buckling" of the flow. I do not believe the models handled that synoptic forcing by latent heat flux of convection taking place -- the case needs a further study.

We'll see...but I am not at this time altogether very confident for any tropical rendition of what is going on out there. Even the 12z NAM and its oft' intensity lust has backed way off and has a pultry 1000'ish mb low nearing the Carolinas.

Hopefully, this TUTT does not go on to interfere and this TD goes ahead and turns into the tempest that everyone seems to want. But, at this moment, that is definitely the lesser of the probabilities.


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