Cieldumort 's post caught my attention and prompted a revisit of the latest 6-month SST forecasts. The rapid change in forecast ENSO SST anomalies continues. The current forecast would imply about a -0.4C Region 3.4 anomaly, but given the trend toward a rapid decline in the existing La Nina, the reality forecast is probably more like -0.2C for the May/June/July average anomaly.

This meant that the analog years should be revisited - and what a change there as well. I could not find a significantly similar analog year that was a true good match for what has happened in the ENSO region this year, but the following years are best selections in priority order:

2001 - 15/9/4 - not as cold at start of year, but realistic for end of year.
1976 - 10/6/2 - probably too warm at end of year
1951 - 10/8/2 - not as cold at start of year
1989 - 11/7/2 - Remained cooler than currently expected during the season

Based on the above, my first thought was to leave my earlier forecast of 12/7/3 intact, but with deference to 2001 I've upped my totals slightly to 13/8/3.
Cheers,
ED