weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 20 2008 01:33 PM
93L models and motion

There are current ( correct ) models for 93L. Am attaching a link here, http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al932008.png

Note however, that given the appearant and approx. LLC of 93L, around 15.5N and 65W, the models seem (to me) to initialize the system to far to the west by several degrees. That, and the fact that the upper shear increases "if" 93L either moves more northward or if to attempt to develop more towards the north, than I would tend to lean towards an assumption of any developing system to tend to struggle and eventually stay well east of the Southeast Conus. What is odd to me, is that despite the tendancy of the 12Z Shallow and Mid level BAM models, I just do not quite see the level of easterly surge that would seem to continue to push 93L more westward as they indicate. Whether it is even possible to yet determine any "initial" motion or not, as it stands now the overall area of disturbed weather simply seems to be "propogating" in an overall northwest motion. Any develpment that might occur as far east as 65W ( or eastward ), would seem to move in such an overall NW motion as well. If in time, 93L should move north of Puerto Rico or HIspanola, than I just cannot see how longer term motion would bring any eventual tropical cyclone towards the S.E. Conus. Pretty much in line with how the 12Z GFS would seem to carry the system for now.

That all said, should 93L somehow maintains a weak low to mid level circulation and somehow develops south of Hispanola all the while tracking as far west as 70W longitude, than I could see a possible evolution that could be a cause of concern to Haiti, Cuba, and possibly Florida. Just not looking as if this would be the most reasonable scenario for the moment.

Though certainly not a likely candidate ( at least for any short term develpment at all ), I would be far more concerned with any eventual development in the western Caribbean as any potential impact to the Gulf states or Eastern U.S. Fortunately, the EURO model, which I have tremendous respect for, does not seem to be indicating any significant develpment in the Caribbean at all, for the moment.



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