Time to rethink the 2009 Outlook (again). There are increasing indications that at least a moderate El Nino will develop in the Pacific during June and July and continue for the remainder of the season. That, coupled with a continued cool tropical Atlantic through September suggest that an active season is no longer likely, and I've lowered my seasonal expectation to 10/6/3 (and it wouldn't surprise me if the actual numbers are even lower if the El Nino event becomes stronger). Analog years are 1965 and 1951.

A reminder that this thread will remain open through May, so you still have a couple of days to make your own forecast for the season or revise a previously made forecast.
Cheers,
ED