| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 30 2009 12:04 PM |
|
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L
|
Quote:
One page I like to look at in this situation is the one below, it shows a lot more of the models all on one page. You can see on it that the lower level models ( ie CLIP, BAMM, BAMD, BAMMS, and CLP5) seem to have a much better handle on this system right now, which makes sense.
94L Wundermap
94L is looking alot more organized this morning as indicated by NHC upgrading to code red. The CLIP and CLIP5 are more for establishing baseline comparison.
"CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model (CLIPER5 is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model"
Here is a wikipedia link for more info about models:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_prediction_model
More in depth reading:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml