| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 30 2009 01:21 PM |
|
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L
|
Quote:Quote:
One page I like to look at in this situation is the one below, it shows a lot more of the models all on one page. You can see on it that the lower level models ( ie CLIP, BAMM, BAMD, BAMMS, and CLP5) seem to have a much better handle on this system right now, which makes sense.
94L Wundermap
94L is looking alot more organized this morning as indicated by NHC upgrading to code red. The CLIP and CLIP5 are more for establishing baseline comparison.
"CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence) is a 3-day statistical model (CLIPER5 is a 5-day version of the same model). It uses the current path of a tropical cyclone and an average of historical paths of similar cyclones to come up with a track, and is considered a "no-skill" model. Curiously, until the late 1980s, this was actually the most accurate model. Forecast skill is determined by comparing forecasts against this model"
Here is a wikipedia link for more info about models:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_prediction_model
More in depth reading:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
Good to know Craig...curious that they have still been the closest to correct so far for this system. I've been looking at the WV imagery this morning, and I find it hard to believe that any of the models are still predicting a NW turn for this system yet. I know the models are inaccurate at this point because of the systems lack of organization, but it seems that there is sufficient high pressure to the north of 94L to keep it on a WSW track for at least another day or so, putting it again well to the S and W of all of the predictions at this point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html