(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 31 2009 11:03 AM
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 94L

94L certainly looks formidable and sizable, however still have not seen any surface observations indicating falling pressures, especially closest to the CDO. Based on this, I do not believe that NHC will upgrade 94L to a depression any earlier than 5:00pm today. Thereafter, and assuming that the overall convection continues, than perhaps this evening or tomorrow.

After looking at every different satellite resolution, I just can't seem to make out any specific point of higher top ( convective ) turning. Perhaps more interestingly, and in every effort to further hasten my current eye strain...., observation of both the visable and RGB resolutions are starting to make me think that a low level center may have been well seperated over the past couple days, and thus this feature several degrees to the west and slightly south ( which too appears to be convecting a little ), may be competing and/or cutting off inflow to a newly forming LLC under the main CDO. In most small areas of disturbed weather, any well established low level swirl if sheared apart, would simply move on, and eventually "spin out". Perhaps given the larger and more protective envelope of this current system, such a lower level center might still realign with a newly forming low/mid level. This, or that we may be simply dealing with such a broad low level center, that only now that there has been any significant consistancy of convection, that perhaps this system might finally work its way down to the surface.

For the potential rationale described above, and appearant lack of obvious low level inflow and falling pressures, this is why I would tend to think NHC may hold off upgrading 94L to a depression. Given the upper level southerly shear in place, its just hard to guess whether we'll be looking at forming bands in 12 hours, or a total collapse of all convection.

I do believe that if and when we do start seeing falling pressures, and what would appear to be a consolodated surface center ( perhaps late this eve. or tomorrow? ), that we certainly could see a rapid upgrade, perhaps straight to TS. Then, model data will become particularly interesting.

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center