Hurricane29
(Weather Guru)
Mon May 17 2010 10:03 AM
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season

Not sure the reason for such low numbers there ED....

Let's see: El Nino is dead...shear should be weaker as a result.

Atlantic all time record TNA/AMO for MAR/APR in with robust SST that already look like July.

Analogous years with fading Nino/robust AMO : 1995, 1998, 2003, 2005.

Should be VERY active season (16+ storms), and the way the SSTa are shaping up, the Carib should be very warm...I would favor a GOM/Carib season once again.

Only negatives at this point is how much shear there is in the Carib, but I am thinking it is going to be weak.

ECMWF seasonal forecast mean MSLP forecast

This link supports consistent low pressures in the W. Atlantic/GOM. And with super warm SST in the Atlantic, should be no problem getting upward motion there when MJO pulses dictate so.


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