| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 20 2010 05:28 PM |
|
Re: Outlook for the 2010 Season
|
Quote:
Well, I'd done all this math to come up with a statistical reason for my prediction and I think I forgot to hit post. But here we go
Tropical and Subtropical Depressions - 21
Tropical and Subtropical Storms - 19
Hurricanes - 10
Major Hurricanes - 5
Where did these numbers come from? by taking the most active of the 4 out of last 6 years and averaging out the totals and then adjusting by one, depending on my feelings of verisimilitude for my numbers.
With the SSTs warming and we're already heading towards La Nina conditions I'm going to go ahead and revise my forecast:
Tropical and Subtropical Depressions - 23
Tropical and Subtropical Storms - 21
Hurricanes - 12
Major Hurricanes - 7
I've taken the three most active years this last decade (by catagory) and averaged them together and then bumped the numbers up by one.