Well Ernesto certainly has been an interesting storm to forecast - and he is at it again. After developing rather impressively this afternoon, dry air has once again worked itself into the core of the hurricane - just after the 21Z bulletins were issued. This latest degradation of the core should just about eliminate any chance for further intensification - which would be good news for the folks in the Yucatan - but don't rely on anything concrete with this storm. Landfall as a hurricane is just about certain.

At 07/21Z Hurricane Ernesto was located about 140 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico, moving to the west northwest at 12 knots. This translates to an early morning landfall between Cozumel and Chetumal, Mexico. From NHC:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

Current Weather at Chetumal, Mexico

Current Weather at Cozumel, Mexico

ED