Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Apr 05 2013 03:23 PM
Re: Outlook for 2013

The latest SST trends and ENSO forecasts still suggest a neutral ENSO year (on the negative side of neutral in the -0.1 to -0.5 range). These SST projections prompt a new set of analog years as follows:

1996 13/9/6
2001 15/9/4
1981 12/7/3

The tropical Atlantic basin should be a little cooler than last year but still above normal, so I'm going back to my initial thoughts for a slightly above normal season of activity with a forecast of 13/8/3.

The latest forecast issued today from TSR remains unchanged at 15/8/3. CSR issues its numerical forecast for the season on April 10th.

You can enter your own guesstimate for the season (no rational required) until this thread closes on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED


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