As an afterthought, I wanted to mention that I don't believe the odds of a below-normal season to be very good - I'm of the opinion that we will most likely see an average to hyperactive year in 2013, biased to be at least above average, with a breakdown something like this: In bottom 5 seasons: 0%, well below avg: 2%, below avg: 8%, about avg 20%, above avg 20%, well above avg: 25%, in top 5 seasons: 25%.

Basically, baring a surprisingly fast developing El Nino, excessive SAL, or other such unforeseen event, I would simply want to bet that 2013 continues the general trend seen since 1995 consistent with the warm AMO phase, which if anything, has only become more pronounced (Image below).