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It is difficult to find a realistic analog year for the 2015 season. Right now, 1957 is the only season that remotely matches what 2015 could be like. Given the unique SST pattern (both current and forecast), the seasonal forecasts from the various agencies are probably going to have quite a range from very quiet to very busy. Its quite possible that Florida will indeed hit the 10 year record of no landfalling hurricanes. ED |