Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Nov 30 2015 11:09 PM
Outlook for 2015 - The Final Results

The 2015 season has ended and most of the CFHC site users did an outstanding job this year with their forecasts for the season. The final numbers for 2015 were 11/4/2 - a normal season of named storms although slightly low on the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. The average forecast by all of the site users that participated was 9/4/2 for a skill score of -2 and an 'outstanding' rating - which ties 2015 with 2014 for the highest rating ever achieved in our annual exercise. Doombot! and stormtiger had it very close - both with a score of -1, while M.A., doug, cieldumort and gsand all had a score of -2. The range in scores was from -1 to -18. Lamar-Plant City, GlenJohnson and vpbob21 all had scores of -3 while beachcrafts and MichaelA had scores of -4 - all of these for an 'excellent' rating. I was in the 'good' category with a score of -5 along with JoshuaK, craigm and dolphinatic with scores of -6. On the professional side, CSU had a score of -6, NOAA came in at -4 and TSR did a great job at -1. Note that there really wasn't a good analog year that matched this season.

Right now 2016 looks like it will be a little more active, however, probably not as much of an uptick in activity as you might be thinking. I'll post some thoughts on that in a Met Blog and in a new Storm Forum Outlook thread for 2016 in early January. But for now, congratulations on a forecasting job well done for 2015 - its going to be tough to beat these results in 2016 but we'll give it a try.
Cheers,
ED



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