cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue May 31 2016 11:41 PM
Re: Outlook for 2016

My thinking has been going back and forth some, but I am comfortable enough with 17/9/3 (including Alex and Bonnie, which we have already had). This is on the high to very high end of most mainstream forecasts, and is admittedly not with great confidence.

Some analog years that stand out more to me than others include: 58, 66, 73, 88, 92, 98, 03 and 2010.

Whether or not the season ends up as 'active' as 17/9/3, I also expect a much much greater-than-average risk of systems affecting the southern through eastern United States - as well as much higher-than-average odds that any systems which do push inland, to be able to maintain further inland.

For Hawaii, the West & Southwest: Not to the same extent as in 2015, I also put Hawaii, the West and Southwest US at a higher-than-average risk of impacts from tropical cyclones (more likely in the form of flash flooding, waves, etc., than any sort of direct hit- but still possible)..

For the North Atlantic: 17/9/3 final. With above average threats, overall.



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