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I guess that it depends on what SST analysis you look at. The Reynolds analysis, which is about a week old, indicates an SST of about 28C. Since 28C is considered as the minimum threshold for tropical cyclone development (there have been a few exceptions), I used the word 'marginal'. Both the Reynolds and the Otis analysis indicate that the current SSTs in that area are about 0.5 to 1.0C below where they should be for this time of year. Just noticed that NRL has started Invest 95 on the tropical site. Cheers, ED |