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Hi Steve: Actually at the time, the upper air progs had pulled the western limit of the Atlantic ridge back to the east and the 300mb forecast showed a southerly flow on the west side of the ridge. I also didn't think that it would move quite as fast as it did. Progs still show the southerly flow so shear could keep this one from developing. Here is a link - they also have a 48 hour. http://virga.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_h24_00.gif Cheers, ED |