Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Aug 07 2002 01:29 AM
Tropical Storm Cristobal

This is a tough one - more like a real nightmare. On the premise that your first forecast is usually your best, I'm going to stick with the large anticyclonic loop idea. Here is the 'scientific' rationale so far:
It was not supposed to intensify - it has.
It was supposed to move east, then northeast - it has moved south.
It would not threaten Florida - it is beginning to.
It would be ripped apart by the strong northeast shear - it is ripping apart the shear.
I'm sorry if you expected some real pearls of wisdom, but the truth of the matter is I'm not at all certain where this storm is going to eventually go. Sunday I didn't think that the developing offshore east coast trough would catch this system and I still don't. My hunch (and its really just that) is that Cristobal will continue its southerly movement with a turn more to the southwest then west and northwest as it completes the loop. As a 'trapped' system, this process could take about 3 days. As the trough slides east, the shear will relax and allow for additional intensification. Possible threat to the extreme northern Bahamas and the south and central Florida east coast - no landfall, but close enough for some rough weather. I'd hope to have a better idea by morning, but with this system I know better On a serious note, this is also a tough forecast for the folks at NHC. The models have done poorly with this system and will probably continue to do so for awhile. Sorry for the late update - I've been 'under the weather' for the past two days.
(Addendum: Some signs of an upper level center forming near 28.8N 77.3W. In the past 6 hours the center seems to be reforming southward rather than moving southward - another factor which really messes up any realistic attempt at forecast movement.)

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