I must agree with you in some condtions, HF. I do believe that we will not see storms that go harmlessly out to see this year. I'm betting (as far as East Coast systems go this year) that we will see many threats on the coast. And given the current pattern of cut-off systems hovering around the East Coast and developing convection in the Caribbean, I believe our first East Coast threat could be a Dennis (1999) type event. This would take place in August, most likely because sheer values will be more favorable by then. I really due think that we could see shades of the 1999 hurricane season this year, just with fewer intense storms and the Atlantic storms developing farther west (near E. Caribbean) than 1999. As for named storms, we could see as few as 8 and no more than 11 or 12.