from kevin's poll it's clear that not many people have faith in 95L. just a little refresher on systems over near texas. quite often they will rapidly intensify right before going in, and continue to improve in organization after landfall. considering that this system has a good 15 to 18 hours left over the water, i'm not about to toss it from consideration. the only thing i have to change is where it comes ashore. looks like brownsville area after all. and yes, i'm still betting against my late july guess for a first named storm.
convection around florida has nothing to do with surface weather, save maybe a seabreeze front. a potential trigger wave is coming in from the east in a couple of days, to toy with whatever is still there. should note that model support that was present yesterday is hard to come by today.
HanKFranK aiken sc 2153z08july